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Cash, Finance or Lease

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Three doors, one honest table Future-valued, so they compare Updated July 2026
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The loan, opened up

Three doors, one table

Where the doors swap places

The true cost of each door at every investment return. Crossings are where the advice changes; the dot column is your assumption. Hover to explore.

What each door asks of you

Working the doors

How we calculate

What is included

All three doors are future-valued to the same month at your market return, so they compare honestly. Cash: the price, grown — minus the residual you still hold. Finance: the down payment grown, plus every payment grown from the month it left, minus the same residual. Lease: every lease payment grown — and nothing at the end, because nothing is what you hold. The verdict names the cheapest door and calls margins under 3% of the price a line-ball.

What is estimated or left out

One residual serves the cash and finance doors — if you’d sell privately versus trade in, the gap moves the answer. Lease-end fees, mileage overages ($0.15–0.30 a mile past the cap), wear charges, and insurance differences are outside the model, and they all lean against the lease. Business use flips the table: deductible lease payments can beat both other doors after tax — that’s an accountant conversation worth its fee.

The formula, in plain words
i = return/12 j = APR/12 m = term FV(lump) = lump × (1+i)^m FV(stream) = pmt × ((1+i)^m − 1) / i loan pmt = L×j / (1 − (1+j)^−m), L = price × (1 − down) cash = FV(price) − residual finance = FV(down) + FV(payments) − residual lease = FV(lease payments)

Common questions

Is leasing always the worst deal?
Usually, for a keep-it-long buyer — you rent the steepest years of depreciation and hold nothing at the end. It flips when the residual the leasing company bet on is too optimistic (their loss, your gain), when a business deducts the payments, or when you genuinely swap cars every three years anyway and value the warranty umbrella.
Should I pay cash for a car if I have the money?
Compare the APR with what the money would honestly earn. At a 6.9% loan against a 6% expected return, cash wins quietly — a guaranteed 6.9% is on offer. Flip the numbers (2.9% promo APR, 6% return) and financing wins. The chart above shows your exact crossing; honesty about whether the cash would really be invested does the rest.
What’s the money factor on a lease?
The lease’s interest rate in costume: money factor × 2400 ≈ APR. A 0.0032 factor is a 7.7% loan wearing sunglasses. Dealers quote payments, not factors — ask for the factor, the residual, and the capitalized cost separately, and the lease becomes a loan you can actually compare.