The true cost of each door at every investment return. Crossings are where the advice changes; the dot column is your assumption. Hover to explore.
All three doors are future-valued to the same month at your market return, so they compare honestly. Cash: the price, grown — minus the residual you still hold. Finance: the down payment grown, plus every payment grown from the month it left, minus the same residual. Lease: every lease payment grown — and nothing at the end, because nothing is what you hold. The verdict names the cheapest door and calls margins under 3% of the price a line-ball.
One residual serves the cash and finance doors — if you’d sell privately versus trade in, the gap moves the answer. Lease-end fees, mileage overages ($0.15–0.30 a mile past the cap), wear charges, and insurance differences are outside the model, and they all lean against the lease. Business use flips the table: deductible lease payments can beat both other doors after tax — that’s an accountant conversation worth its fee.
i = return/12 j = APR/12 m = term
FV(lump) = lump × (1+i)^m
FV(stream) = pmt × ((1+i)^m − 1) / i
loan pmt = L×j / (1 − (1+j)^−m), L = price × (1 − down)
cash = FV(price) − residual
finance = FV(down) + FV(payments) − residual
lease = FV(lease payments)