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Field note · reference

Break-even churn: the price-rise formula

A simple way to estimate how many customers a price increase could lose before revenue or gross profit falls.

General information only. This guide is an estimate, not financial, business, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Your costs and customers may behave differently.

The basic calculation

If only revenue matters, the break-even customer loss is 1 − old price ÷ new price. Raising a price from $10 to $12 gives 1 − 10 ÷ 12, or about 16.7%. Revenue would be unchanged if fewer than 16.7% of customers left and all other factors stayed equal.

Include variable costs

Revenue is not profit. When serving each customer has a variable cost, compare contribution margin instead: price minus the variable cost. A price change can improve gross profit even when revenue is flat, or do the opposite if costs also change.

What this estimate leaves out

Customers may downgrade, buy less often, or return later. Competitors may react. Fixed costs, taxes, discounts, and customer-acquisition costs can also change the result. Treat the formula as a scenario to test, not a prediction.

Try your numbers

The Price Increase calculator compares revenue and contribution margin using the assumptions you enter. Check several churn rates before making a decision.

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