Every January, Social Security checks get a yearly raise to keep up with prices. It is called the COLA — the cost-of-living adjustment. A group that studies benefits, The Senior Citizens League, now expects the 2027 raise to be about 3.8%.
If that holds, the average retirement check — about $2,081 a month — would grow by roughly $79 a month, or about $949 a year. It would be the biggest raise in several years: the 2026 raise was 2.8%, and 2025's was 2.5%.
Why the raise may be bigger this time
The COLA follows inflation. Prices rose faster this year — 3.5% over the last 12 months — mostly because of energy, housing and insurance costs. A bigger raise is not "extra money." It is catch-up for the higher prices retirees already pay.
When you will know for sure
The official 2027 COLA is announced in mid-October 2026. It is set by a formula that uses summer inflation numbers (July, August and September). So the 3.8% figure is a forecast, not a promise — it has already moved from 3.9% to 3.8% this year as inflation shifted.
What this means for you
- Do not plan spending around the forecast. Wait for the official October number.
- Medicare Part B premiums usually change at the same time and come out of the same check — the real raise is what is left after that.
- If you live on a fixed income, an emergency cushion matters even more. Even one month of expenses helps.
Where these facts come from: Kiplinger — 2027 Social Security COLA forecast, The Senior Citizens League — COLA watch. Facts checked July 2026. Numbers can change after publication.