Time & delegation · 1 min
The nonstop premium looks like vanity until it is priced. This instrument charges the connection for the extra hours at your rate — and for the misconnection it will eventually deliver, weighted by how often that happens and what a blown day costs you.
Instrument No. 03 computes this properly; a round figure serves here.
Tight connections in winter or through congested hubs run 15–30%.
The meeting moved, the hotel night, the evening lost. Price the realistic wreckage, not the catastrophe.
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Fly direct.
$885
what the nonstop is worth to you, this trip
| Hours saved, at your rate | — |
| Expected misconnection cost avoided | — |
| What the nonstop is worth to you | — |
| What the nonstop costs | — |
| Premium as a share of value | — |
| If the miss risk is | Nonstop worth | Premium / value |
|---|---|---|
| — | — | — |
| — | — | — |
| — | — | — |
Arrival condition is unpriced and real: four extra transit hours before a negotiation is not a neutral event. If the trip has a sharp purpose, weight the verdict toward the nonstop beyond what the gauge shows.
The blown-day figure deserves honesty in both directions. A flexible return with nothing scheduled makes a misconnect cheap; a board meeting makes it ruinous.
On overnight routes, a connection that converts a red-eye into a flat bed can reverse the reading — comfort is a productivity input the model leaves to you.
Everything below is calculated from your inputs. The miss probability is an assumption you control.
value_of_nonstop = hours_saved × rate + miss_probability × blown_day_cost
reading = premium / value_of_nonstop
The gauge shows the premium as a share of what the nonstop is worth; the break-even disc sits at 100%. House bands mirror the delegation instrument: at or under 85%, pay for the nonstop; 85–115%, line-ball; above 115%, take the connection and keep the difference. The misconnection term is simple expected value — probability times consequence — the honest way to price a risk you face many times a year.
Limitations. Fatigue, arrival condition and the value of schedule flexibility are judgment terms. Airline-specific reliability varies more than any default can capture.